ה-IMF (קרן המטבע הבי"ל) צופה קיפאון כלכלי ביורובה
Growth in the euro area is set to moderate from 1.8 percent in 2018 to 1.6 percent in 2019 (0.3 lower than projected last fall) and 1.7 percent in 2020. Growth rates have been marked down for many economies, notably Germany (due to soft private consumption, weak industrial production following the introduction of revised auto emission standards, and subdued foreign demand); Italy (due to weak domestic demand and higher borrowing costs as sovereign yields remain elevated); and France (due to the negative impact of street protests and industrial action).
There is substantial uncertainty around the baseline projection of about 1.5 percent growth in the United Kingdom in 2019-20. The unchanged projection relative to the October 2018 WEO reflects the offsetting negative effect of prolonged uncertainty about the Brexit outcome and the positive impact from fiscal stimulus announced in the 2019 budget. This baseline projection assumes that a Brexit deal is reached in 2019 and that the UK transitions gradually to the new regime. However, as of mid-January, the shape that Brexit will ultimately take remains highly uncertain....
לגבי 'המדינות המתפחות' ביורובה - כאשר הכוונה היא בעיקר לטורקיה - נאמר כך:
Growth in emerging and developing Europe in 2019 is now expected to weaken more than previously anticipated, to 0.7 percent (from 3.8 percent in 2018) despite generally buoyant growth in Central and Eastern Europe, before recovering to 2.4 percent in 2020. The revisions (1.3 percentage point in 2019 and 0.4 percentage point in 2020) are due to a large projected contraction in 2019 and a slower recovery in 2020 in Turkey, amid policy tightening and adjustment to more restrictive external financing conditions.
כלומר, מדינות מרכז ומזרח אירופה ימשיכו לצמוח, אבל טורקיה נכנסת למיתון.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/01/11/weo-update-january-2019
Growth in the euro area is set to moderate from 1.8 percent in 2018 to 1.6 percent in 2019 (0.3 lower than projected last fall) and 1.7 percent in 2020. Growth rates have been marked down for many economies, notably Germany (due to soft private consumption, weak industrial production following the introduction of revised auto emission standards, and subdued foreign demand); Italy (due to weak domestic demand and higher borrowing costs as sovereign yields remain elevated); and France (due to the negative impact of street protests and industrial action).
There is substantial uncertainty around the baseline projection of about 1.5 percent growth in the United Kingdom in 2019-20. The unchanged projection relative to the October 2018 WEO reflects the offsetting negative effect of prolonged uncertainty about the Brexit outcome and the positive impact from fiscal stimulus announced in the 2019 budget. This baseline projection assumes that a Brexit deal is reached in 2019 and that the UK transitions gradually to the new regime. However, as of mid-January, the shape that Brexit will ultimately take remains highly uncertain....
לגבי 'המדינות המתפחות' ביורובה - כאשר הכוונה היא בעיקר לטורקיה - נאמר כך:
Growth in emerging and developing Europe in 2019 is now expected to weaken more than previously anticipated, to 0.7 percent (from 3.8 percent in 2018) despite generally buoyant growth in Central and Eastern Europe, before recovering to 2.4 percent in 2020. The revisions (1.3 percentage point in 2019 and 0.4 percentage point in 2020) are due to a large projected contraction in 2019 and a slower recovery in 2020 in Turkey, amid policy tightening and adjustment to more restrictive external financing conditions.
כלומר, מדינות מרכז ומזרח אירופה ימשיכו לצמוח, אבל טורקיה נכנסת למיתון.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/01/11/weo-update-january-2019
